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Agent-based simulation modeling - Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation

Tools


  1. Agent-based simulation modeling

    – formalism of agents and their interactions at multiple levels

  2. Bayesian analysis

    – use to re-assess probabilistic data in light of new data. Statistical analysis.

  3. Brainstorming

    – free-flowing lists/diagrams of all ideas and options

  4. Checklists

    – matrix

  5. Cost-effectiveness/ Cost-benefit/ Expected value

    – econometric techniques

  6. Cross-impact analysis

    – test robustness of risk-assessment and dependencies between events

  7. Decision conferencing

    – quantitative analysis of options incorporating the uncertainties in interactive modes

  8. Decision/probability trees

    – charts of relationships between decision modes; helpful for generating expected value

  9. Delphi technique

    – range of views of experts through iterative written correspondence

  10. Environmental assessment/Strategic environmental assessments

    – consideration of all environmental impacts taken into account before deciding on development

  11. Expert judgement

    – the assessment of experts in the field on specific propositions

  12. Focus groups

    – groups of stakeholders that discuss their opinions on certain topics

  13. Indicators/ mapping

    – compilation of indicators into aggregate indices, often mapped

  14. Influence diagrams/ Mapping tools

    – graphic identification of options when there are a number of decisions

  15. Monte Carlo analysis

    – computer based analysis that explicitly assesses uncertainty

  16. Multi-criterion analysis

    – scoring and weighting of options using indicators and more than one decision criteria

  17. Ranking/ dominance analysis/ pairwise comparisons

    – preference of options

  18. Risk analysis

    – approaches to decision uncertainty including hedging and flexing, regret, minimax and maximin

  19. Scenario analysis

    – fuller picture of implications of uncertainty gained through simultaneous variation of key uncertainties

  20. Sensitivity analysis/Robustness analysis

    – identify which variable contribute most towards uncertainty

  21. Stakeholder consultation

    – consultation with individuals and/or groups affected by future processes

  22. Stakeholder Thematic Networks

    (STN) – mapping of the key actors and their interactions

  23. Uncertainty radial charts

    – assessment of the potential uncertainty of options

  24. Vulnerability profiles

    – mapping of the different indicators of vulnerability for different groups


SA.3.4. APF Vulnerability references


(2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press.

(2001). Vulnerability and resilience for coupled human-environment systems: report of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program 2001 Summer study. Cambridge, Mass., Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University.

Abramovitz, J. N. and L. Starke (2001). Unnatural disasters. Washington, D.C., Worldwatch Institute.

Adger, N. W. (1999). "Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam." World Development

27

(2): 249-269.

Adger, W. N. (1996). Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. Norwich, University of East Anglia

:

1-63.

Adger, W. N. (1998). Evolutionary and Ecological Economics of Land Use and Climate in Vietnam. Norwich, University of East Anglia

:

1-31.

Adger, W. N., P. M. Kelley, et al. (2001). Living with environmental change: social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in Vietnam. London, New York.

Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, et al. (1994). At Risk - Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters. London, Routledge.

Bohle, H. G. (1993). The geography of vulnerable food systems. Coping with Vulnerability and Criticality. H. G. Bohle, T. E. Downing, J. O. Field and F. N. Ibrahim. Saarbrucken, Verlag Breitenback

:

15-29.

Bohle, H. G., T. E. Downing, et al. (1994). "Climate change and social vulnerability: towards a sociology and geography of food insecurity." Global Environmental Change

4

(1): 37-48.

Bonnard, P. (2000). Assessing urban food security: adjusting the FEWS rural vulnerability assessment framework to urban environments. Washington, D.C., Usaid Fews.

Cannon, T. (1994). Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of 'natural' disasters. Disasters, development and environment. A. Varley. Wiley, New York.

Chambers, R. (1989). "Vulnerability, coping and policy." IDS Bulletin

20

(2): 1-7.

Clark, W. C. and E. A. Parson (2000). Assessing vulnerability to global environmental risks. Cambridge, Mass., Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University.

Dixon, R. K., S. Guill, et al. (1996). "Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change." Climate Research

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(2): 89-201.

Dow, K. (1992). "Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change." Geoforum

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: 417-36.

Dow, K. and T. E. Downing (1995). "Vulnerability research: Where things stand." Human Dimensions Quarterly

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(3): 3-5.

Downing, T. E. "Monitoring and Responding to Famine: Lessons from the 1984-85 Food Crisis in Kenya." Disasters

14

(3): 204-229.

Downing, T. E. (1991). Assessing Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Famine: Frameworks, Concepts, and Applications., Brown University.

Downing, T. E. (1992). Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change in the semi-arid tropics: Modelling regional and household agricultural impacts and responses, Oxford University Environmental Change Institutition

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1-26.

Downing, T. E. (1993). Concepts of Vulnerability to Hunger and Applications for Monitoring Famine in Africa. Coping with Vulnerability ad Criticality. H. G. Bohle, Downing, T.E., Field, J.O., Ibrahim, F.N., Verlag breitenbach

:

205-259.

Downing, T. E. (1994). "World nutrition is improving. Sixth Annual Hunger Research Briefing and Exchange." Food Policy

19

(1): 81-83.

Downing, T. E., S. lezberg, et al. (1990). "Population Change and Environment in Central and Eastern Kenya." Environmental Conservation

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(No. 2, Summer 1990): 123-133.

Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) (1992). Vulnerability Assessment. Arlington, VA, FEWS/Pragma Office.

FAO/GIEWS (1999). Food supply situation and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Roma, FAO.

Ford, R. E. (1994). "The population-environment nexus and vulnerability assessment in Africa: focus on Rwanda, Zaire, Kenya, Burkina Faso."

Garanganga, B. J. Contribution of Climate System Monitoring and Predicition in Early Warning Systems for the Reduction of Natural Disasters. Harare

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1-7.

Handmer, J. W., S. Dovers, et al. (1999). "Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change(4): 267-281.

Hendrickson, D., J. Armon, et al. (1998). "The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya." Disasters

22

(3): 185-199.

Holzmann, R. (2001). Risk and vulnerability: the forward looking role of social protection in a globalizing world. Washington, DC, The World Bank.

Hulme, D. and P. Mosley (1996). Finance for the poor or poorest? Financial innovation, poverty and vulnerability. Reading, University of Reading, Department of Economics and Department of Agriculture.

Kasperson, J. X. and R. E. Kasperson (2001). Global environmental risk. Tokyo, New York.

Kasperson, J. X., R. E. Kasperson, et al. (1995). Regions at risk. Comparisons of threatened environments. Tokyo, United Nations University Press.

Kates, R. W. (1994). Sustaining Life on the Earth. Scientific American

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92-100.

Kelly, C. (1997). Things Fall Apart

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2.

Klein, J. T. and R. J. Nicholls (1999). "Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change." Ambio

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(2): 182-187.

Leach, M., R. Mearns, et al. (1999). "Environmental entitlements: dynamics and institutions in community-based natural resource management." World Development

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(2): 227-247.

Liverman, D. and P. Stern (1997). Global Change: Pathways for the Next Decade: Chapter 7

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1-46.

Martens, W. J. M. (1996). Vulnerability of Human Population Health to Climate Change: State-of-Knowledge and Future Research Directions. Maastricht, Dutch National Research Programme.

Martin, R. V., R. Washington, et al. (2000). "Seasonal Maize Forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe Derived from an Agroclimatological Model." American Meteorological Society(September 2000): 1473-79.

Mimura, N. (1999). "Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change." Climate Research

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(August 27): 137-143.

Moser, C. O. N. (1996). Confronting Crisis: A Summary of Household Responses to Poverty and Vulnerability in Four Poor Urban Communities. Washington D.C., World Bank.

Ogunseitan, O. A. (2000). Framing vulnerability : global environmental assessments and the African burden of disease. Cambridge, Mass., Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University.

Pelling, M. (1998). "Participation, Social Capital and Vulnerability to Urban Flooding in Guyana." Journal of International Development

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: 469-486.

Phillips, J. G., E. Makaudze, et al. (1999). "Current and Potential Use of Climate Forecasts for Resource-poor Farmers in Zimbabwe." American Society of Agronomy Special Publication Series: Impacts of El Nino and Climate Variability on Agriculture(June 10th, 1999): 1-29.

Pritchett, L., S. Sumarto, et al. (2000). Quantifying vulnerability to poverty : a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia. Washington, DC, World Bank East Asian and Pacific Region Environment and Social Development Sector Unit.

Ramos Mane, C. (1997). "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - foreword." Climate Research

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(1-2): U6.

Rook, J. M. (1997). The SADC Regional Early Warning System: Experience Gained and Lessons Learnt from the 1991-92 Southern Africa Drought. Harare, Zimbabwe, UN Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Regional Early Warning System (SADC)

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1-6.

Scoones, I. (1998). Sustainable rural livelihoods: a framework for analysis. Working Paper No. 72. Brighton, Institute for Development Studies.

Stephen, L. and T. E. Downing (2001). "Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting." Disasters(25(2)): 113-135.

Swift, J. (1989). "Why are rural people vulnerable to famine." IDS Bulletin

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(2): 8-15.

Twigg, J. (2001). Sustainable livelihoods and vulnerability to disasters. London, England, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Center.

Twigg, J., M. R. Bhatt, et al. (1998). Understanding vulnerability: South Asian perspectives. London, Intermediate Technology.

United Nations Interagency Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2000). Countering disasters, targeting vulnerability. Geneva, Switzerland, The Secretariat.

United Nations: Division for Social Policy and Development (2001). The costs of poverty and vulnerability. New York, United Nations.

Watson, R. T., M. C. Zinyowera, et al., Eds. (1998). The regional impacts of climate change. An assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Watson, R. T., M. C. Zinyowera, et al., Eds. (1998). The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Watts, M. J. and H. G. Bohle (1993). "The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine." Progress in Human Geography

17

(1): 43-67.

Wisner, B. and H. R. Luce (1993). "Disaster Vulnerability: Scale, Power and Daily Life." Geo Journal

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(2): 1878-A.

World Bank (2002). Reducing vulnerability and increasing opportunity : a framework for social protection in Middle East and North Africa Corp. Washington, DC, World Bank.

World Food Program (1999). An overview of vulnerability analysis and mapping. Roma, World Food Program.

Zinyowera, M. C., R. H. Moss, et al. (1998). The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
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